Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2836 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 2836 · TPA → CLT

departs 1:54 PM ET · arrives 3:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±5 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

CLT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2836 · TPA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?