Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2853 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AA 2853 · TUL → CLT

departs 1:51 PM CT · arrives 5:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2853 · TUL → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?