Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3016 LANDED 3:39 PM ET, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

AA 3016 · LGA → MIA

took off 1:09 PM ET · landed 3:39 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3016 · LGA → MIA

Odds over time