Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3023 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 3023 · JAC → CLT

departs 11:02 AM MT · arrives 5:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JAC is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAC

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JAC (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.4 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3023 · JAC → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?