Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3130 LANDED 12:19 PM CT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AA 3130 · CLT → MSN

took off 11:35 AM ET · landed 12:19 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ CLT is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3130 · CLT → MSN

Odds over time