Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3130 IN THE AIR (OFF 1:39 PM CT, ETA 4:09 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AA 3130 · MSN → CLT

took off 1:39 PM CT · expected to land 4:09 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ CLT is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3130 · MSN → CLT

Odds over time