Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3134 IN THE AIR (OFF 11:50 AM CT, ETA 1:31 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AA 3134 · ORD → SAN

took off 11:50 AM CT · expected to land 1:31 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3134 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time