AA 3134 · ORD → SAN

departs 10:05 AM CT · arrives 12:21 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3134 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?