Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3229 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 3229 · MIA → LGA

departs 12:51 PM ET · arrives 4:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±5 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MIA is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3229 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?