AA 3259 · MIA → DFW

departs 4:38 PM ET · arrives 6:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3259 · MIA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?