Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 457 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AA 457 · MIA → SJU

departs 1:21 PM ET · arrives 3:39 PM AT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ 1pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 457 · MIA → SJU

Odds over time