AA 506 · CLT → SEA

departs 3:24 PM ET · arrives 6:13 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at CLT that day

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 506 · CLT → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?