Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 512 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 512 · MIA → ATL

departs 7:45 AM ET · arrives 9:48 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ATL that day

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.78 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 512 · MIA → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?