AA 595 · PHL → MSP

took off 9:08 AM ET · expected to land 10:38 AM CT (scheduled 9:12 AM ET → 11:48 AM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSP?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHL is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 595 · PHL → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?