AA 808 · DCA → ORD

departs 1:14 PM ET · arrives 2:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 808 · DCA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?