AA 841 · CLT → AUS

departs 7:19 PM ET · arrives 9:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at CLT that day

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 841 · CLT → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?