AA 928 · MIA → STX

departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 2:05 PM AST

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at STX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STX?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from MIA are often late

↑ Arrivals into STX at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STX (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 928 · MIA → STX

Odds over time

How late will it get to STX?