Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 9801 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AA 9801 · TPA → MIA

departs 12:16 PM ET · arrives 12:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.09 in

MIA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 9801 · TPA → MIA

Odds over time