Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1024 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AS 1024 · LIH → HNL

departs 8:22 AM HT · arrives 8:59 AM HT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ 8am departures from LIH are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1024 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?