Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1147 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AS 1147 · KOA → HNL

departs 5:45 PM HT · arrives 6:32 PM HT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

HNL (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1147 · KOA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?