Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2611 IN THE AIR (OFF 11:00 AM PT, ETA 5:55 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AS 2611 · SMF → CVG

took off 11:00 AM PT · expected to land 5:55 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2611 · SMF → CVG

Odds over time