Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 271 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AS 271 · PDX → ANC

departs 5:50 PM PT · arrives 8:38 PM AKT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from PDX are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at ANC that day

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at PDX that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 271 · PDX → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?