Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 496 LANDED 12:51 PM PT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AS 496 · SEA → LAX

took off 10:48 AM PT · landed 12:51 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±4 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 496 · SEA → LAX

Odds over time