AS 496 · SEA → LAX

departs 10:06 AM PT · arrives 12:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 496 · SEA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?