AS 853 · SEA → HNL

took off 9:30 AM PT · expected to land 11:43 AM HT (scheduled 9:14 AM PT → 12:05 PM HT)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 853 · SEA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?