AS 853 · SEA → HNL

departs 9:12 AM PT · arrives 11:52 AM HT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 853 · SEA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?