AS 96 · SEA → FAI

took off 1:14 PM PT · landed 3:35 PM AKT (scheduled 12:02 PM PT → 2:41 PM AKT)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to FAI?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at SEA that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAI

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

FAI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,267 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 96 · SEA → FAI

Odds over time

How late did it get to FAI?