AS 96 · SEA → FAI

departs 11:58 AM PT · arrives 2:46 PM AKT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAI?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

FAI (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 96 · SEA → FAI

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAI?