Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
DL 1454 · DTW → DCA
departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 4:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 24%
Thu 10/8 23%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 47% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 1.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.