Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
DL 2853 · AVL → ATL
departs 7:53 AM ET · arrives 8:57 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 10%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at AVL that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.