Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
DL 2853 · AVL → ATL
departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 9:33 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at AVL that day
↑
Other factors
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↓
8am departures from AVL are usually not late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip 0.36 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.