Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
DL 2853 · AVL → ATL
departs 7:53 AM ET · arrives 8:57 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−23 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −23 pts in 24h
−23 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
AVL is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AVL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.