Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
DL 3196 · SRQ → ATL
departs 11:01 AM ET · arrives 12:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 5%
Thu 10/8 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SRQ
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.