F9 1381 · TPA → CVG

took off 7:42 PM ET · landed 9:33 PM ET (scheduled 6:53 PM ET → 9:16 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to CVG?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

CVG (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1381 · TPA → CVG

Odds over time

How late did it get to CVG?