Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1381
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
F9 1381 · TPA → CVG
departs 7:42 PM ET · arrives 10:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 23%
Sun 10/11 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 7.33333 mi Precip 0.52 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.