F9 3382 · SFO → SAN

departs 4:14 PM PT · arrives 6:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3382 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?