Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4524
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
F9 4524 · AUS → MCO
departs 10:42 AM CT · arrives 2:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 12%
Fri 10/9 17%
Sat 10/10 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,167 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.37 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.