Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4524
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
F9 4524 · AUS → MCO
departs 10:46 AM CT · arrives 2:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 12%
Fri 10/9 17%
Sat 10/10 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.