Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4725
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
F9 4725 · SJU → MCO
departs 12:21 PM AT · arrives 3:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.