Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4725
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4725 · SJU → MCO
departs 12:13 PM AT · arrives 3:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 24%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.