Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4725
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
F9 4725 · SJU → MCO
departs 11:50 AM AT · arrives 3:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 24%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at SJU that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SJU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.57 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.