Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4726
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
F9 4726 · MCO → SJU
departs 11:17 PM ET · arrives 2:15 AM AT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 13%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.63 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.