Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4837
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
F9 4837 · MCO → IND
departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 5:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.47 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.