Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4837
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4837 · MCO → IND
departs 4:24 PM ET · arrives 7:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.