Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4837
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
F9 4837 · MCO → IND
departs 4:24 PM ET · arrives 7:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 34%
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
55%
chance · ±0 pts
+29 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
55%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
29%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +29 pts in 24h
+29 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.