Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 3515 · EYW → MIA
departs 11:28 AM ET · arrives 12:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.