Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3629
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 3629 · MIA → BHM
departs 3:50 PM ET · arrives 4:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BHM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
BHM (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 667 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.