MQ 3639 · TPA → BNA

departs 5:28 PM ET · arrives 6:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

BNA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3639 · TPA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?