Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3685
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
MQ 3685 · DCA → DSM
departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 9:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
DSM (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.