MQ 3689 · MIA → EYW

departs 4:10 PM ET · arrives 5:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EYW?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EYW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3689 · MIA → EYW

Odds over time

How late will it get to EYW?